The following is an extract from Casemate’s newest book Blood Money about Johan Raath’s experiences as a Private Military Contractor in Iraq. It explains what grave dangers could face the citizens of Northern Iraq if ISIS ever managed to destroy the Mosul Dam.

 

During 2015 the state of disrepair of the Mosul Dam became one of the main talking points in Baghdad, and unsurprisingly so. It is the largest dam in Iraq, more than three times the size of the Hoover Dam in the US. It is upstream from the city of Mosul on the Tigris River. It was built in 1981 on top of gypsum, a soft mineral that is water-soluble, making its eventual collapse inevitable. Grouting and strengthening of the dam has been ongoing since its inception, but since the invasion of Mosul by ISIS in June 2014 no maintenance had been done, and this was cause for great concern.

Studies conducted in 2006 by the US Army Corps of Engineers and by the University of Mosul in 2009 determined that if the dam wall broke, an estimated 207 632 cubic metres of water would flood downstream at a rate of 3.5 kilometres per second. The wall of water would be over 25 metres high in the first nine hours of the disaster and half of Mosul city would be flooded

 

Such a disaster would affect not only Mosul. According to the studies, the flood wave would displace more than 2 million Iraqis and extend 500 kilometres downstream along both sides of the Tigris at a height of between 3 and 6 metres, reaching as far as Baghdad. It would cause extensive flooding in central Baghdad. Our villa was less than a kilometre from the Tigris, and this posed a possible risk that we had to cater for. After some head-scratching, we came up with an emergency plan for what we dubbed ‘Waterworld’ – in reference to the 1995 movie of the same name where characters have to survive in a post-apocalyptic world that has been flooded.

The plan included emergency evacuation to southern Iraq if the dam wall failed. This may sound straightforward, but it is quite involved, as sensitive equipment, such as armoured cars, radios, weapons, ammunition, servers, company computers, confidential information, cash in the safes, and so on, has to be either transported or disposed of. In addition, we had to cater for sufficient fuel, water, food and certain other basics to survive on until we reached a safe haven. Another plan had to be worked out in case millions of people fleeing the disaster jammed the roads leading to the south. In such an event, we planned to seal the bottom of the villa with sandbags and other materials, and move to the higher floors or into the roof.

If the dam wall collapsed, residents in Baghdad would have 48 to 72 hours before the water reached the capital. But we anticipated that once such news broke, there would be chaos on the roads, as everybody would try to get out of the city soonest. We filled sandbags and positioned them, and other supplies, such as water and meals ready to eat, in strategic places around the villa.

According to reports, if the dam wall failed, it could be the biggest man-made disaster in recent history, as hundreds of thousands of people might drown, and up to 2 million would be displaced. I couldn’t help wondering why the ISIS insurgents who had captured Mosul did not try to blow up the dam wall, but I assume it was because they were based downstream in Mosul and they didn’t want to destroy their powerbase. However, now that Mosul has been liberated and reclaimed by the Iraqi government, I still fear ISIS might try to destroy the dam.